The EU summit is taking place on Thursday and Friday of this week, and will cover the Brexit transitional deal amongst other issues. Any new developments this week are likely to affect Euro rates. The table below shows the difference in Euros you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past 30 days.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
Since the beginning of this week, with the UK and EU coming closer to finalising a transitional agreement post-Brexit, we have seen the Euro lose almost 1% in value against the Pound, with a €200,000 sale in to Pounds achieving almost £1,500 less compared to Monday morning.
On Monday this week it announced that Michel Barnier and David Davis are 75% of the way to agreeing a transitional deal that will essentially avoid a cliff-edge Brexit scenario on the deadline day of 29th March next year. This transitional deal will run up until December 2020, which will allow for extra time in finalising trade negotiations and give businesses and individuals more confidence and clarity, hence the rise in the value of the Pound against the single currency.
Some of the headline aspects of this agreement include the UK remaining as part of EU trade deals but without a seat at the decision making table, Northern Ireland staying part of the single market to avoid a hard border with Ireland and a reciprocal arrangement for citizens’ rights when moving from the UK to Europe and vice versa.
All eyes now will be on the EU summit which is due to begin tomorrow where the leaders of the 27 EU member states will sit down and be presented with the EU and UK’s transitional arrangement to essentially give it their seal of approval. If this goes through smoothly then we could see some further spikes in the Pounds value and further losses for anyone selling Euros to buy Pounds. It will also be interesting to see if there are any further discussions on trade deals and the Irish border issue, which are proving to be major obstacles in the negotiations.
However, it is not just Brexit that will be on the agenda at the Summit, with other key topics such as Eurozone reform, the migrant crisis and the 2019 Parliament Elections.
The migrant crisis for example is a hotly debated topic and the anti-immigrant League’s success in Italy’s election highlights this.
It will also be interesting to see if there is any further reaction from EU leaders after the current head of the EU commission, Jean Claude Juncker, penned a controversial letter of congratulation yesterday to Vladimir Putin after securing another term in office. With Russia in the headlines now for the alleged attempted murder in Salisbury and after what many view as a rigged election, I would imagine they will be hotly discussed at the Summit.
The Summit is a two-day event spanning Thursday and Friday this week and comments during and after have the potential to impact on the currency markets. Keep in touch with your account manager here to find out how recent events are affecting your currency transfer.
Data from the Eurozone is particularly light this week, but trade balance figures and construction output at the beginning of the week impressed. Tomorrow afternoon there is PMI data released from the manufacturing and services sector, which are set to show a fall from previous figures, so this could weigh on the value of the Euro.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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