Change in the narrative of the Pound

The Pound still carries the heavy burden of the Brexit on its value, and it’s undeniable that events in the political realm are the governing factor for the value of Sterling. The ins-and-outs of the referendum process, namely when Article 50 will be triggered, and who will be part of the negotiation process, what the aims for the Government’s negotiators are heading into the two year period which Article 50 allows to iron out a deal, are all markets are really waiting to hear before deciding to invest in Sterling whilst it is cheap or steer clear.

As in August when Theresa May announced a delayed fuse for the enactment of Article 50, the expectation that cumbersome protocol will hamper the ability for Article 50 to be triggered by March has allowed the Pound similar respite.

The US election and the perception of Sterling

Furthermore, the narrative is shifting. At the time of writing this report the focus on markets is on the US election, and will likely be drawing market attention away from the UK’s political situation and towards the United States.

However, for anyone planning a foreign currency purchase and hoping the Pound will gain further value for a long period will likely be disappointed.

The American system is slightly different from that of the UK. There is no immediate transition of power. Whichever candidate wins will not be able to take the reins until they are sworn in in January. This gives plenty of time for market to tire towards the election even after a few days. This was the same in 2012.

So Sterling users should not count on this result to produce some much needed respite in the near term. I strongly recommend that if you have an upcoming buying requirement you should contact your account manager and detail this to them in order to discuss your options to safeguard any planned transfers from adverse movements.

With the results now in, Clients buying or selling the US Dollar may be best to pay particular attention to live exchange rates and get in touch with us over the coming days. Email me here or call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 to discuss your requirements.

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