Where next for Pound to Euro exchange rates?

If you are a regular trader you will know that certainty normally gives support for that specific currency. However the clearer the picture becomes for the UK and Brexit there is a strong change GBP/EUR exchange rates could actually fall. Now that UK MPs have confirmed Theresa May has the power to begin Brexit negotiations an exit from the EU and signal market looks more likely in March.

Rewind the clock to October 2016, GBP/EUR exchange rates dropped to the 1.10s (central level) and this was because investors were under the impression the UK were going to leave the single market in March 2017. We have had a High Court decision and Supreme Court decision which has been a stumbling block for Theresa May, however Brexit looks like its back on track and if she confirms the UK will leave the signal market in the upcoming weeks there is certainly scope for GBP/EUR exchange rates to fall to levels we become accustom to in October. For Euro buyers within the next 3 months the sensible option would be to purchase on the back of the spike we saw yesterday.

Merkel’s response to Trump

As I stated within the US Dollar section of this report, Donald Trump has made the headlines for the wrong reasons this week as he believes Germany amongst other countries have tried to devalue their own currency in a bid to harm the US economy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has since responded to the newly elected President and stated “Germany is a country that has always called the European Central bank to peruse an independent policy”. She went on to exclaim “because of that we will not influence the behaviour of the ECB”.

It appears that over the upcoming months we could see a currency war begin between the US and Eurozone due to controversial comments from Donald Trump. Currency speculators will move between the currency pair trying to make profit from their yields. In turn this will have an impact on GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates. If you trade GBP/USD or GBP/EUR take into consideration unexpected swings could occur at any point, hence I would outline your position to your dedicated account manager and they will keep you up to date with market movement.

Data releases today

ECB President Mario Draghi is set to address the public at 12:15 today to give an updated overview to how well the European economy is performing. Inflation has been on the rise within the Eurozone therefore the quantitative easing program should be a hot topic. Any indication that the ECB are planning to taper the current program could lead to Euro strength and consequently the Euro would become more expensive to buy.

Market movements are to be expected today with a raft of economic updates from the UK and Eurozone. Get in touch with your currency broker if you have an upcoming transfer that needs our attention. Call 01494 725 353 or email drl@currencies.co.uk for further assistance.


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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.