With the currency markets moving every two seconds, it can be vitally important to be aware of what is driving the currencies in or out of your favour. The below table shows the difference in Euros you would have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past 30 days.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR2.2%€5,050
European data to influence the value of the Euro There are a few key data releases to look out for this week if you are involved with a euro currency transfer. Wednesday at midday, Germany are set to release their Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices which measures price stability. The number is set to fall slightly to 2% which could devalue the euro slightly however I expect investors will want to wait for Friday’s unemployment rate and Consumer Price Index numbers. For many years it’s been heavily publicised that European unemployment is high but on Friday we are expecting to see unemployment fall from 8.2% from 8.3% which is good news for euro sellers. The consumer Price Index numbers are set to remain at 2.1% and if this materialises I expect the euro will strengthen as inflation is remaining above the ECBs target even though they are tapering the QE program and that it’s coming to an end at the turn of the year. If I were selling euros short term I would hold off until Friday.

Short Term Eurozone Economic Data

With the latest EU summit set to take place tomorrow we could be in for a very volatile period ahead for the single currency, against both the Pound and the US Dollar.

Today we have the latest Industrial Production data for October, due to be published at 10:00am. The estimate is for 3.4% and we have seen a gradual rise during the last few months so any further rise could see some Euro strength vs the Pound later this morning. Also at 10:00am we have the latest Eurozone Employment Change data for the third quarter. Employment levels in the single economic area have been very strong recently and I think if we see further evidence of this I expect the Euro to strengthen against Sterling during today’s trading session.

Tomorrow afternoon brings with it the latest European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision at 12:45pm. Typically, this would result in a lot of movement for Euro exchange rates but owing to the EU summit taking place tomorrow I think that is likely to dominate the headlines.

Could the Brexit Talks strengthen the Euro?

A lot of focus has been placed on the UK recently and therefore the value of Sterling exchange rates but it is important to note that the talks are for the benefit of both parties. The discussions are being dubbed ‘phase two’ and hopefully trade discussions will go ahead with both sides looking to aim for a positive result.

Therefore, if the talks go well it is uncertain exactly which way GBPEUR exchange rates will go so expect the unexpected. However, what is for sure is that it will be the Brexit talks that are likely to dominate the rates to buy or sell Euros.

The likelihood however is that if the talks stall I think we could see problems ahead for Sterling so this may provide clients selling Euros with a good opportunity so make sure you’re prepared to move very quickly.

Thank you for reading today’s market report, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would be happy to assist with any queries you have about upcoming transfers. Please feel free to get in touch on 01494 725 353 or email me at teh@currencies.co.uk.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.