Theresa May, Trump and Turkey

In what seems like a lifetime ago Theresa May’s meeting with US president Donald Trump appears to have gone extremely well with both parties speaking out about the ‘special relationship’ that the two countries share together. There has been little detail about any specific trade deals being done, which will obviously take a long time and since then it appears as though relations may have hit a stumbling block with May expressing disappointment with Trump’s refugee ban (covered in more detail in the US section of the report.)

In the meantime the UK has signed a new £100m defence deal with Turkey, which has safeguarded hundreds of British jobs and proves in the wake of Brexit uncertainty that the UK is still open and willing to do business globally. Turkey have also pledged to increase trade with the UK from $15.6bn to $20bn per year. The meeting has gone under the radar owing to the White House visit and I think this will give the Pound some further support.

Pound to make short terms gains?

I expect to see the Pound make some minor gains vs the US Dollar and the Euro this morning but the gains may be short lived. As we end the month there is little economic data published in the UK until Thursday when the Bank of England announce their latest interest rate decision.

The central bank are extremely unlikely to be changing monetary policy at the moment and will likely focus on the recent positive UK GDP for the final quarter of 2016 released last week. The UK is now the strongest performing of the G7 nations in terms of growth and a reason for the recent resurgence in the value of the Pound against the Euro and all other major currencies.

There are a number of data releases due this week on the continent so the GBP/EUR rates will be driven by what is happening overseas rather than in the UK. We have already seen the Pound gain by almost 5 cents vs the single currency since the turn of the year which is the difference of EUR5,000 on a currency transfer of £100,000. Politically the government are slowly taking back control after the recent Brexit talks and the Supreme Court verdict which reaffirmed Theresa May’s recent stance claiming that she would seek Parliamentary approval to take things forward.

The Pound could make headway against the Euro and US Dollar today following Trumps controversial executive orders on Friday. Clients with a foreign currency requirement may want to capitalise on these gains by speaking with a member of our team on 01494 725 353. Alternatively you can me email me at teh@currencies.co.uk.

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