Scottish Referendum Dominates

During the course of last week we saw huge movements on the currency markets for Sterling. GBPEUR moved by over 2% or the difference of £3,200 on a currency transfer of EUR200,000 a huge movement in such a short space of time.

More recently polls have shown that the ‘No’ vote appears to be gathering pace and a lot of media reports are putting pressure on those looking to vote for ‘Yes’.  Leading retailers including John Lewis, Asda & Marks & Spencer have all suggested that business costs will rise if the country separates from the rest of the United Kingdom.

It appears as though the panic from the previous weekend has ignited those voters looking to keep Great Britain together and the general press comments are that they are opposed to Scotland gaining independence.

This could see Sterling gain strength against all major currencies and especially if we see the ‘No’ vote go through on Thursday.

However, as the vote is still not certain we are likely to see some volatile trading sessions this week so if you have a currency transfer to make keep in close contact with your account manger who will keep you updated with any movements. See here for live interbank rates.

Bank of England Minutes

On Wednesday of this week the Bank of England releases its minutes from the September meeting. Last month we saw 2 of the 9 members voting for a rate increase.

Ben Broadbent & David Miles are likely to keep the same view as last month and with governor Mark Carney saying last week that UK interest rates may rise by Spring 2015 I think any other members voting for a rate hike we could see Sterling trade higher. If you have a currency transfer to make, then click here to register.

US Dollar News

GBPUSD rates have fallen by as much as 11 cents in just 3 months as the Fed announced that the current tapering will end in October and interest rates could rise within 6 months. Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting could provide further Dollar strength as it comes just a day before the Scottish vote, which could cause some last minute panic for investors holding Sterling.

US Retail Sales have remained strong for the world’s leading economy, which showed a rise of 0.6% compared to the previous month. With the ECB having cut interest rates earlier this month and the instability surrounding Scotland it appears as though investors have sold off the Euro and bought Dollars as a safe haven trade.

Australian Dollar News

Sterling has started the week off strongly against the Australian Dollar following some weak Chinese industrial and retail sales figures on Satruday afternoon. With the Australian economy heavily dependent on Chinese growth this has weakened the AUD and with the RBA minutes due out on Tuesday morning I think we could see GBPAUD rates trade through 1.80+ this week.

In one of the biggest weeks in history for Sterling exchange rates It is important that if you have a currency requirement to stay in contact with your account manager. If you have any questions on how these or any other release may affect your transfers, feel free to call on FREEPHONE 0800 328 5884 or send me an email to teh@currencies.co.uk

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