GBP/EUR at 4 week highs

GBP holders are currently enjoying 4 week highs against the Euro with Sterling jumping from 1.155 to 1.161 on the back of positive retail sales in the UK whilst capitalising on weakening consumer confidence in France and Germany. The combination made a €250,000 transfer for our well-informed clients, £1,100 cheaper when timed correctly. If you have a short-term Euro requirement, why not open a free account with FCD and have your very own account manager help you capitalise on the next spike in the market.

Potential for continued short term Euro weakness

With the growing effect economic data seems to having on investor appetite these days I wouldn’t be surprised to see this morning’s GDP and Manufacturing data from Europe’s Powerhouse economies to have a similar impact should the data fall short of expectation.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on the readings as they will give an indication as to whether or not the ECB will be forced into extending it’s monetary easing policy.

It may be worth getting in touch today to discuss the implications of these releases on your pending transfer.

Plan for next week’s volatility

As there is very little economic data expected next week it is only natural that the triggering of Article 50 on Wednesday will take centre stage. Although experts are suggesting that Sterling’s consistent gains this week have been overvalued by the markets and could be quickly reversed, I am quietly confident invoking article 50 will eventually help the Pound find support in the mid 1,17s and maybe even break through the 1.18 mark within the next three weeks.

My thinking is that as the UK takes it’s first steps and commits to it’s divorce with the EU, Sterling will finally be able to make strides against its main enemy since the referendum last year: Uncertainty.

French elections update: Reasons for long term Euro optimism

Although Macron came under fire this week for his proposed reforms on public spending in front of the AMF (association des maires de france) it does still seem he is in pole position to win the first round of the French elections following his dominant display during a live debate earlier on in the week. This will come as music to the ears of those hoping for long term Euro strength as the likelihood of a Marine Le Pen victory seems to be fading by the day and with it the fears of France dropping out of the EU.

As a result, Barclays are the latest bank to have reconsidered their prediction of the Euro dropping below parity against the Dollar, revising it to just above the $1.03 mark.

Stability against the US Dollar normally suggests strength against the Pound. However, I would strongly recommend planning for the unexpected.

Considering he has had an advisory role during the last 2 highly criticised French presidents’ tenures, is it that unlikely that Macron’s past could catch up with him?

The UKs EU-withdrawal and fears over the French elections are likely to shape GBP/EUR in the weeks and months ahead. Clients may be wise to consider the different contract options available to you, in order to mitigate risk in this volatile market. Speak with a member of our team on 01494 725 353 or email me at bts@currencies.co.uk for more details.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.