it is likely that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the July 30th-31st meeting. What is less clear is how much the Fed decides to cut by. Whilst many expect a 25 basis point cut there are some commentators expecting a 50 basis point cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did signal earlier this year his intent to go back to the old days of surprising the markets, keeping them guessing. Will he deliver on that promise and make the bold move of a 50 basis point cut?

Currency Pair% Change (Month)Difference on £200,000

With lingering concerns for the global growth outlook as well as the ongoing US China trade war the feeling is that these undesirable effects could be starting to negatively impact on the US economy. President Donald Trump this week said there is still a long way to go to reach a deal with China. A 50 basis point cut is starting to look like a credible move and could see the dollar weaken should investors start to move away from a lower yielding US dollar.

Will GBPUSD Break Above 1.45?

GBP vs USD at 23 Month Low

GBP to USD exchange rates have fallen in the last two months taking the pair to a 23 month low. The fall is likely attributed to the sudden likeliness of a no deal Brexit after the two conservative contenders for PM have pushed for a no deal Brexit.

With Boris Johnson expected to be Prime Minister next week any escalation in the rhetoric surrounding no deal could see the pound fall lower against the dollar. With so much going on in British politics at this crucial juncture, you may wish to contact our trading floor to discuss your requirement and the options available to plan around these developments.

Next week sees a raft of US economic data ahead of Gross Domestic Product numbers on Friday which could see some movement for the dollar. GBP vs USD exchange rates are most likely to be impacted by the new British Prime Minister.

Read our monthly currency forecast

Download here


Read more articles


Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.