GBP/USD rates remain marooned under 1.30 as the US economy continues to go from strength to strength, whilst the UK remains in the midst of its biggest evolution in a generation.
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The USD has found plenty of support under 1.28 and the key resistance barrier of 1.30 seems unlikely to be tested ahead of December 11th, when MP’s will vote on UK PM Theresa May’s much debated Brexit deal with the EU.
The Pound seemingly takes a step forward, only to see its value diminish as investors' concerns about the UK’s future economic standing come into question, with the very real possibility of a no-deal scenario hanging like a dark cloud over the UK economy.
Looking at the US and despite growing concerns over falling oil prices, and President Trump's trade wars with China and Europe, the economy continues to post impressive numbers, helping to cement the greenback's position around its current levels against Sterling.
Despite the US economy performing above the market's expectation for a prolonged period, it seems as though President Trump is approaching an economic crossroads, as an impending full-scale trade war with China edges every closer. There are now real concerns amongst investors that the current tariffs could start to decelerate US economic growth, in particular in key mid-West and farm belt states, which ironically helped propel Trump to the White House in the first place.
Automakers like GM are having to cut jobs and close plants, citing billions of Dollars in tariff-related costs. Soybean crops are rotting in fields, with China’s markets now closed, news which is likely to put pressure on Trump.
Despite the current ceasefire, one can only imagine that if further crunch talks with China do not bear any type of long-term reconciliation that these concerns and loss of jobs will only accelerate.
This could have a serious impact on public perception and also cause an economic slowdown, which in turn could start to change the tide and cause the USD to weaken against the Pound, especially if Theresa May somehow manages to convince her fellow MP’s to vote in favour of her Brexit deal.
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