The ‘witch hunt’ as US President, Donald Trump has labelled it for the past 2-years is heating up now that Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort has been convicted of a series of campaign finance violations this week. Trumps former attorney, Michael Cohen has also pleaded guilty to similar charges. This comes after a 1-year investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller into whether or not there was collusion between Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and Russia. More on these political factors and how they can impact the Dollar in today's USD report, the table below shows the range of exchange rates for the past year showing the importance of timing your transfer to maximise your return.
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American politics may not be of much interest to some of our clients, but if you have a currency requirement involving the US Dollar it’s worth paying attention to the unfolding’s, especially as the immediate reaction from the markets was to sell-off the Dollar.
The sell-off has a dramatically long way to go yet if the gains from Trump’s tax reforms earlier in the year are to be reversed, but the Greenback has been under pressure since the announcement and its also the number one talking point within US politics at the moment.
With November mid-term votes approaching I think that if there’s talk of Trump being impeached, there is scope for the US Dollar to fall owing to the political uncertainty it would bring.
Yesterday trade negotiations between the US and China re-opened for the first time in 2-months, and this took place just hours after round of new tariffs on Chinese imports for goods up to $16bn was implemented. A move which the Chinese are already vowing to counter.
The talks will take place between China’s Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury Department, and the aim is to end the escalating standoff between the pair that resulted in a global sell-off of assets is risker currencies earlier this year.
I would expect any significant outcomes to hold the potential to move USD exchange rates, as well as others. Analysts on the other hand don’t expect much, but do think this meeting could open the door for talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the year. If you wish to updated if there’s a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest. Jerome Powell, the Fed Reserve Chairman will also be speaking at 3pm on Friday, which could lead to a very busy end to the week.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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