Getting the best exchange rate can be achieved by understanding what is driving rates and the service of a specialist currency broker. Below are movements in just a month affecting Pound Sterling rates when buying £200,000 during the high and low points of the past month:
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
Friday saw the US Unemployment picture improve with Unemployment falling to 4.1%, a 17-year low. Such positive news has unfortunately been overshadowed by the dreadful news of a gun massacre in Texas.
Our thoughts are with the victims and their families. The much stronger Unemployment data reflects a bounce following the falls witnessed during the Hurricane season some weeks ago.
We also saw revisions higher in Non-Farm Payroll NFPR data from previous months, this all points to a stronger case for the Fed to raise interest rates in December.
Raising a base interest rate typically strengthens the currency concerned hence the dollar has been stronger as economic data remains buoyant. The NFPR data however, a monthly representation of changes in the numbers in and out of work in Non-agricultural sectors, was lower than forecast. Another concern was averages earnings and wage growth which came in lower than expected.
Plenty of new jobs have been created since the Hurricanes Harvey and Irma caused skewed figures last month which is good news but with US citizens not earning more there are some questions over whether the Fed will raise rates in December as expected. It is more than likely they will but any deviation in this belief could see the US dollar weaker.
Today Janet Yellen, the Fed chair will give a speech, which will be one of her first since the appointment of Jay Powell as the next Fed chair in February. Powell is expected to be a fairly safe pair of hands continuing the safe, steady course the Fed has been plotting gently returning US monetary policy back to normal. Yellen is unlikely to move the market but it will be interesting to see if she mentions the recent US data.
The GBPUSD exchange rate is holding its nose above 1.30 but a break below could be a real possibility. With an ongoing expectation the US will raise interest rates in December and sterling remaining on the back foot after the interest rate decision for the UK. I expect GBPUSD could soon be back below 1.30 in the coming weeks and months.
For the rest of this week we have some other Fed member speeches and a series of lower tier data releases. The most important data release is Thursday’s jobless claims which will give further clues on last week’s jobs data.
Donald Trump is currently touring the Asian region with a number of key meetings. So far all that is apparent is he is really enjoying his golf there but any big policy announcements with this vital economic region could sway US dollar sentiments.
If you have a transfer buying or selling the Pound and US dollar please don’t hesitate to speak to us about the latest trends and news that could drive rates.
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