The US Presidential elections are beginning to heat up with the latest polls now suggesting Trump is ahead of Clinton.

US Dollar continues to soften versus the Pound as hopes of an Interest Rate hike fade

Investors hopes of an interest rate hike in the US, the first since the Fed last make an increase in December, faded towards the end of last week as US new jobs data (Non-Farm Payroll) failed to impress.

After a bullish speech from Janet Yellen earlier in the week had raised hopes it’s now looking like a hike this month is unlikely, and with every month that passes Senior Dealer Dayle Littlejohn’s early prediction that no hikes will occur this year is looking all the more likely.

The recent sell-off in the Greenback has left Sterling trading at over a 2 month high against the Dollar and to put that in perspective, the difference on a $200,000 house purchase in the states became £2344.56 cheaper between Monday and Friday of last week. Keeping in touch with your currency broker could result in you making savings on your exchanges, not just because we have access to award winning exchange rates but also because we’re proactive with our timings.

Will a Trump Presidency result in a weaker Dollar?

Mr Trump appears to be making the news a lot of more often than his opponent Hillary Clinton recently, and not for the wrong reasons for once after some strong public appearances. Hillary’s lead over him and the Republican Party is slipping, to which yesterday he harshly tweeted ‘The polls are close so Crooked Hillary is getting out of bed and will campaign tomorrow’, a clear reference to her health which is a topic I covered in my last report.

Criticisms of her memory, physical health and decision making regarding the 16,000+ classified emails she apparently deleted are mounting and the polls reflect this, leading me to make the bold assertion that I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump wins in November.

If he does, I do expect a drop in the value of the US Dollar as like we saw with Brexit, when the underdog wins, currencies generally lose. US Dollar sellers would be wise to follow the election closely and do get in touch if you would like to set up a rate alert whereby we watch the exchange rates on your behalf.

On Thursday at 1.30pm US Initial Jobless Claims will be released and the expected figure is 263k. US Dollar sellers will be hoping for a positive reading after Friday’s disappointing jobs data. Then on Friday we’ll see the release of the Baker Hughes US Rig Count Change, a news release company director Dan Wright covered extensively in a recent report. Oil has been in the headlines consistently recently as OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) continue to try and control oil production, so pay close attention this Friday.

As we approach closer to the US elections, we may find GBPUSD exchange rates become more volatile, keeping in touch with your broker during this time may be beneficial. Call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 if you'd like to know more.


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