Despite some fairly unflattering economic data state side at the end of last week, the dollar has very much started the month of October on the front foot, having confidently driven sterling back below the 1.30 mark, which may now act as a key residence point in the weeks ahead. More on the latest economic data releases impacting dollar exchange rates in the USD report below.

Currency Pair% Change in 1 monthDifference on £200,000

I found it interesting to note that the Greenback marched on last Friday despite a considerable contraction in the personal income and expenditure releases. Any indication of a drop in consumer confidence is generally hard to ignore for the markets. With so much of the dollar’s strength riding on the Federal Reserve committing to their aggressive interest rate hikes, there could have been plenty of scope for Dollar weakness on the back of the poor data. Evidently the markets are having a hard time backing the pound, given the uncertain political landscape at present, which does make me feel that holding out for a move back above 1.30 on cable exchange rates maybe a little bit too ambitious for now.

If you are looking to purchase dollars with sterling however, today’s Markit PMI release may well provide you with the next opportunity to maximize your returns. As a business confidence survey, this release will be closely watched by the markets, particularly given last week’s poor reading. Investors will be looking out for clues as to whether Friday’s pessimistic results were fully justified and if a change in trend should be expected.

Is the US Dollar in Danger of Losing its Safe Haven Status?

Trump drawing confidence to the dollar

I still feel the dollar will end the week on the front foot. Personally, I think we are still yet to see the full reaction from Trump’s success in NAFTA talks. In getting the deal over the line, Trump may well have drawn further investor appetite for the dollar, as certain more skeptical segments of the market may begin to believe the President can follow through on his other promises.

Whether or not his pulling out of the Trans-Pacific agreement and indeed the stand off with China pays off remains to be seen, but for now there might be scope for further dollar strength because the markets have reason to keep faith.

Of course, Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll will likely take center stage. With the US currently running at near full employment it is hard to imagine any bad surprises there, particularly as last week’s jobless claims came out so strong.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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