This US Dollar report will address the factors that could affect USD exchange rates in the short-term. The table below shows high to low GBP/USD movement during the last month:
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
The value of the USD has continued to fall, GBPUSD rates have climbed by over 4% within the last 3 months and are sitting close to the highest levels we have seen since September 2016. Central GBPUSD levels have recently broken through the important 1.30 barrier for the first time in months which has been seen as a key residence level. The reason for this climb has really been put on the USD fall from grace rather than Sterling gains. Even though economic data from the US continues to show improvements the concerns about President Trump continues to weaken the Greenbacks value.
The future rates for GBPUSD seem to be keenly linked to the success of President Trump. He has had a difficult time of late with developments on the suspected collusion between the Trump administration and Russia in the US election race, and reports that Trump disclosed classified intelligence to Russia at a recent meeting. The ongoing claims on both of these matters I expect to continue to impact the cost of buying the USD.
It has been claimed that Trump may well have obstructed justice by firing James Comey as the head of the FBI who was investigating the claims and that this scandal could be bigger than Watergate.
How this story develops I expect to be a big contributing factor to the price of the USD and personally I can see GBPUSD rates higher still in the weeks ahead.
US consumer spending has been a key part of the economy in the US and its recovery following the financial crisis in 2008. Now nearly ten years later the high street is showing real signs of contraction as a result of the increase in e-commerce. In 2016 about 4,000 US shops closed and Credit Suisse expect twice that number this year, also, worryingly, S&P Global Ratings expects US retailing defaults this year to surpass those seen in the 2009 recession. Even though I don’t expect this to have a direct impact on Retail figures from the US it does highlight the on-going concerns with employment levels in the US.
This is a topic that investors are starting to take a keen interest in and as a result should be something that anyone with exposure to the USD should equally be watching. The next batch of employment data from the US is expected for Thursday afternoon and perhaps is something that anyone with USD to sell should aim to avoid.
Even though USDGBP rates are now nearly 10 cents away from that seen at the beginning of the year what is worth noting is that USDGBP rates are still up by almost 10% compared to 12 months ago.
For further news on events that could affect your US Dollar exchange call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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