The US dollar edged higher yesterday, pushing the GBP/USD interbank rate towards the lower end of the pair’s recent trading range as the pair dropped below 1.31 and moved towards the current support level of 1.30. US dollar exchange rates were buoyed after progress was made between the US and China in the ongoing trade talks that have been watched closely for some time now

Currency Pair% Change (3 month)Difference on £200,000

USD will be looking for some positive signs regarding the US economy, as the tone surrounding the US economy has changed recently after the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) chose to reign in its aggressive monetary policy outlook for the year. After four interest rate hikes last year and an expected two hikes this year, the Fed is now planning to keep rates unchanged this year. Some market commentators expect there to potentially be interest rate cuts this year from the Fed. US dollar exchange rates dipped due to the new outlook but they now appear to be bullish once again with trade talks between the US and China being one of the key reasons. Reports yesterday from the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House may announce plans for a summit between President Trump and China President Xi Jinping, which could signal that talks are nearing their conclusion.

Yesterday saw the release of monthly PMI data from the US services sector which came in at 62.7, slightly below the forecast of 64.1. This shows a deceleration from last month’s reading which was a record high. However, suggests the outlook for the US services sector remains positive. GBP/USD rates have struggled to find much support above the 1.39 threshold but were sat just above the 1.39 level at the time of writing. With the dollar recovering against the euro and holding its ground against sterling, key data released today could have an impact on where the dollar moves next. Today we will see the release of continuing and initial jobless claims in the US with initial jobless claims forecast to read 540K, any major deviation from the forecast could produce volatility for the dollar. Non-farm pay roll data will be realised tomorrow and is forecast at 978K. If you have any upcoming transfers involving the dollar, please get in touch with your account manager who can keep you up to date with developments.

Non-Farm Payrolls the main event today

Aside from the political influences on the greenback, there are also some economic updates to be aware of especially for those of our readers planning on making a transfer shortly. Yesterday afternoon Jobless Claims beat expectations, as during March there were only 202k claims whereas the market expectation was for 216k. Later today there will be a release of Non-farm Payrolls along with the Unemployment Rate during March so once again the US labour market will be in focus. Non-farm payrolls cover the amount of new jobs outside of the agricultural sector, and the expectation for today’s figure is 180k after a big drop last month down to 20k. If you wish to plan around this event do feel free to register your interest, and the sooner the better as the data will be released at 13.30.


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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.