This Sterling update examines factors that could affect GBP exchange rates this week, while the table below shows the change for a number of GBP pairs in the last 2 weeks:

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR1.76%€3920
GBPUSD1.67%$4380
GBPCAD1.80%CAD $6146
GDP could help the Pound climb

Theresa May Raises Businesses Alarms

The UK Prime Minister speaking in the House of Commons earlier this week essentially put the idea of a swift Brexit transition deal to bed. Mrs May yesterday met with her Cabinet to discuss the sort of deal they’re looking for as not all Minsters are on the same page. The UK’s leader is also keen to find out what the EU think the partnership should look like before progressing. There is an expectation that trade talks will start before the end of the year as long as the UK’s settlement bill is raised from the current offer of €20bn.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel felt that talks regarding the Irish border and citizens’ rights were established but now the topic of money is what’s left.

Brexit talks don’t appear to be having too much effect on Sterling, which may be due to everyone being used to negative commentary. However, if talks do progress into trade discussions then that would be considered progression and could start to provide businesses with more certainty about the future.

There is still 6 weeks before talks are likely to move to trade, but once that happens Sterling could gain a couple of cent off the back of further clarity.

UK GDP Data Today

In the shorter term outlook, 9:30am this morning will bring the latest Gross Domestic Product data. The year on year data for Quarter three is expected to show a decrease from 1.5% to 1.4% with the quarter on quarter reading expecting to stay the same at 0.3%. In my opinion this data could be significantly lower than expected, my colleague Joseph Wright in yesterday’s market report alluded to 75 companies delivering profit warnings and reporting weaker sales last quarter. This will eventually filter down into national economic data, showing the full concern of Brexit.

If you’re looking to buy Sterling then this morning may provide a window of opportunity after the data is released. Get in contact with your broker here at Foreign Currency Direct to discuss your options.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement you can contact our currency brokers on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.