Donald Trump in the latest Bloomberg poll has taken the lead in the “must win” Florida state. There appears to have been a slight general trend across the nation with Hillary Clintons lead looking like it may have been cut by a percentage point.

There is estimated to have been already 9 million votes cast in the election as some states polling stations open early. Several of the states also reveal which parties have been voted for, which is how they know the Florida race is very close. Over the course of the next few days we will start to see more of the state’s outcomes providing a better idea of who’s likely to win on the 8th November.

Durable Goods data

This afternoon there will be Durable Goods Orders data which reveals the amount of orders received for goods planned to last longer than 3 years. This data provides an insight into consumer confidence and business sentiment with a high reading suggesting people are happy to be spending money. There is expected to be an increase in orders of 0.1% for the month of September. Any improvement on this figure will be considered extremely positive as once the US election result is confirmed all eyes will turn to the Federal Reserve for a potential December interest rate hike.

GDP Data

Tomorrow there will be the US equivalent release of today’s UK GDP data. There is expected to be a huge jump from Q2’s 1.4% growth to 2.7% for Q3. This data in my opinion will be well received by the market, however with the uncertainty surrounding the Election especially with a late Trump charge it might have a subdued effect.

Considering there is live polling data being released from the US I would consider speaking to your broker if you’re looking to trade USD. Any shocks in major states could certainly cause the markets to move and there is an expectation of major market movements.

Clients should not underestimate a Trump victory which could have implications for GBP/USD. With less than 2 weeks before the big event those buying or selling USD could benefit from speaking to our team on 01494 725 353.

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