Will USD’s April Struggle Continue?

Swiss global financial services company, UBS has recently found April to be a consistently weak month for the USD, citing two main arguments for their reasoning:

  • A fall in US Treasury Issuance during April, the majority of which are often purchased by investors in Japan and China. This could result in possible decreases in demand for the USD, weakening rates.
  • Oil prices often rise throughout April as refineries begin to reopen after their annual March maintenance shutdowns and as such demand for crude oil increases. Resulting in the likes of CAD strengthening and USD weakening.

Findings also suggested GBP makes gains over its counterparts during April by an average of 2.0% as the FTSE 100 rises through a heavy weighting towards the oil and gas industry, fuelling capital inflows into the economy and strengthening GBP. For any clients wishing to transfer USD into GBP it may be wise to contact your personal broker here at Foreign Currency Direct to learn more about how this issue could impact your trade.

Economic data to drive markets this week

A thick spread of economic data releases for the US this week will be the predominant force behind USD volatility.

Thursday at 12:30pm sees Gross Domestic Product (and its annualised counterpart), Personal Consumption Expenditure and Prices alongside Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week to 24th March. The most pivotal of these releases I believe will be Initial Jobless Claims, with a previous estimate low by 18,000 compared to the actual of 258,000 could we continue to see the US heading towards the 300,000-maximum associated with a healthy labour market? If this data release fails to impress we could soon see an end to the 80 straight weeks below 300,000 for the release, the longest such stretch since 1970.

Friday at 12:30pm Personal Income and Spending figures are released for February. If the data over the course of Thursday and Friday does not live up to expectations we could see Donald Trump’s approval rating drop even further. Already hitting their lowest levels of just 36% in a survey conducted by Gallup between 24th and 26th March in light of his failure to repeal and replace Obamacare. Does Trump have the ability and backing to enact the economic and tax reforms he promised in his campaign?

If you have a requirement for the Pound with the US Dollar, you may wish to capitalise on the multi-decade highs sooner rather than later. A member of our teem will be happy to discuss this in more detail with you on 01494 725 353.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.