This report will examine the factors that could affect GBP/AUD rates this week in order to help you stay informed if you need to make a currency transfer.
Chinese data pushed back to make Friday fraught with risk for GBP/AUD exchange rates
I was up earlier than normal this morning to check on the overall business sentiment figures for the Chinese economy which were scheduled to be released in the middle of the night. Instead, as is commonplace with China, they have decided to delay the release. What this means is that instead of staggering data, overnight tonight China will now have business confidence figures for the manufacturing sector, service sector and overall business sentiment figures (the set scheduled for this morning) all to be released in one fell swoop.
Most of our longstanding readers will be well aware that the positive or negative climate in China has a dramatic effect on the value of the Australian Dollar due to the interconnected nature of the two economies.
Rather than the regular near-market crashes China was subjected to last year, currently the economy is enjoying greater stability. All of the data tomorrow is expected to improve on the previous month and should bolster the Australian Dollar with this renewed confidence in the size of the market in China to buy Australian goods. The rally on the Australian Dollar against the Pound abated overnight with the news, creating some better opportunities for Australian Dollar buyers in the short term.
Will Australian housing data be enough to keep the value of the Australian Dollar in check?
The Australian housing market has been beginning to slow as of late, with new home sales crashing during August by close to 10%. However, much of this is seasonal given that the mid-winter climate does not attract the same buying activity domestically or internationally as it normally does.
A confirmation of this deterioration should be enough to show irrefutably that the Australian housing market is becoming a point of concern and should weaken the AUD, and any rise to prove the previous result was an anomaly will have the opposite effect.
These results are notoriously difficult to second guess, as the relatively small size of the Australian population means that even small changes can have a large impact on the percentage difference in buying activity.
Given the risk anticipated from this Chinese data, anyone with a Dollar buying requirement may wish to take the sensible option and avoid Friday all together when making a transfer. You can secure an exchange rate ahead of time whilst GBP/AUD rates are still five cents higher than what was on offer in August.
Thank you for reading my Australian Dollar currency report, if you have any questions about AUD exchange rates I would be more than happy to discuss them – you can contact me with any queries at jjp@currencies.co.uk.
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