Last night Andrea Leadsom who was the Leader of the House of Commons resigned sighting that she no longer believes Theresa May’s Government will deliver Brexit. In what must be considered as one of the worst days for the Prime Minister.
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Earlier this week Theresa May delivered her “final chance” speech where she offered votes on a second referendum if Parliament passed her withdrawal agreement. There were rumours after this speech from Members of the Cabinet that they had agreed on a way forward and it wasn’t the speech Theresa May delivered.
Last night the 1922 Committee which is made up of back bench MP’s chose not to change the rules to be able to hold a second vote of no confidence within 12 months, which only really offers May a stay of execution for a few days. The Prime Minister will meet Sir Graham Brady who leads the 1922 Committee on Friday and this could well trigger Mrs May to resign.
The GBP/EUR interbank rate appeared to bounce from just above 1.13 to 1.136 yesterday on rumours of Mrs May’s resignation, which could mean that markets believe May leaving to be a positive sign. At the moment there isn’t a clear solution to Brexit and time is once again running out.
As the future of Theresa May looks to be coming to a swift end and the chances of her Withdrawal Agreement coming to the Commons a 4th time seem very unlikely in June, the next few weeks will present a opportunity for Conservative Party members to take the top job.
There is currently thought to be around 15-20 MP’s who fancy a chance at the top job and once Mrs May is gone this will be quickly whittled down. Andrea Leadsom resigning is possibly the biggest attempt to date from a MP to get themselves positioned for the power struggle, distancing herself from the sinking ship before it’s to late to get away.
The only remaining data release for sterling this week will come in the form of Retail Sales with both the month on month and year on year expected to show a fall from the previous data. Economic data is always important however at the moment the political element in the UK is likely to have more of an effect on the rate of exchange.
There could be significant volatility in the next few days so make sure if you do have a requirement your account manager knows to help you to time your transfers.
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