Why Trump could be the next president of the US

When Donald Trump referred to himself as Mr Brexit 2 weeks ago, many were left confused over what it was that he was trying to imply.

The UK’s vote to leave the EU was driven by a nation that grew tired of globalisation, uncontrollable immigration and elitism. The vote to leave the EU in my opinion, was an angry vote against the status quo.

The Leave message was clear, taking back British borders and returning to the good old days of British sovereignty. It was a simple message that sparked fresh hope for those left behind by the impact of globalisation.

It was a huge jump into the unknown, whilst the Leave campaign made no attempt to clarify their position on NHS funding, immigration or how they planned to leave the Eurozone, they simply didn’t need to.

No media warnings of economic turmoil were ever going to change the minds of millions of British citizens; one could even argue such warnings made matters worse. It’s no secret that the majority of media outlets are owned by an elite few that would not have benefited from an exit vote.

Trump’s campaign shares many of these similarities. His campaign is built on the message ‘Make America great again’. A message that sits well with a lot of Americans who again, are growing frustrated by globalisation and feel left behind by its impact.

Like Brexit, Trump’s campaign and his policies are not designed to win many supporters. It’s his message that gives hope to millions of Americans who feel left behind. And like Brexit, Trump gives them an alternative to the status quo.

Polls are not indicative of results

If we’ve learnt anything from Brexit, it’s that polls are never a true reflection of results. The Remain campaign showed leads throughout the referendum with the gaps shortening towards April of this year.

Bookmakers also predicted that the UK would remain in the EU, and just minutes before the vote came to light, markets also misjudged the result.

There are those that share the view that Clinton will definitely win this year’s election, given that the largest demographic of voters in the US are young women. Whilst this is true, Trump has growing support from communities in which he previously made controversial remarks about. It is also worth noting that Hillary Clinton is not favourable amongst voters either, another reason for Americans to risk a Trump victory.

Will the FED hike rates in September?

On Friday during the Jackson Hole conference, Chairlady Janet Yellen made hawkish remarks about the state of the US economy, which prompted many to believe a FED hike could be on the cards in September.

Whilst this does remain a possibility I remain sceptical that the FED will act in such a politically heated environment. Although the FED are not allowed to concern themselves with political issues, it would be difficult to ignore global concerns such as Brexit and a potential Trump victory.

That being said, Friday’s Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates could be a game changer and those looking to buy US Dollars in the near future may want to talk to our team, this has been an unpredictable year so far and anything could happen in the coming weeks.

Whilst Pound to US Dollar exchange rates remain low since the referendum, a FED interest rate hike could see exchange rates fall into the mid 1.20’s.

If you’d like to know more about how a Trump victory or an interest rate hike could impact your US Dollar buying or selling requirements, our team of knowledgeable brokers are waiting to take your call until 6pm today on 01494 725 353.


Read more articles
Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.