In my Sterling report this morning, I made the point that economic data will take time to project itself and spill into the UK economy, the same is true for the Eurozone.

The UK is the third largest net contributor to the EU budget, taking into account payments received from the EU, the UK still contributes a net 8.5bn towards the Eurozone. If the UK opted for a hard Brexit, the likes of Germany, France and Spain would have to plug the financial hole.

There is already growing support for right wing parties and Euroscepticism in recent years, Caused mostly by the growing number of terrorist related attacks from Muslim extremists and open border policies.

Marine La Pen of the French National Front has pledged her support for a referendum if she is elected in 2017. And whilst many consider her far right, her political stance is far more moderate and attractive to the French public than her Father Jean-Marie Le Pen.

And these trends are continuing, in 1999, far right parties held 11% of European seats, in 2014 the numbers have doubled to 22.9%.

How could Brexit impact political decisions in the EU?

The UK is the first nation to leave the EU, and whilst many nations have expressed sadness at the vote, many will be watching with scrutiny at what deal the UK receives once it reaches the negotiation table.

If the likes of Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission continues to make negotiations difficult for the UK, this could worsen the Eurosceptic sentiment that already exists amongst EU nations. On the other hand, if the UK receives favourable terms following their decision to leave, other nations could also demand more favourable terms.

Could the triggering of Article 50 impact the European elections?

Brexit will likely retain a lot of the spotlight in the months ahead. With the European elections fast approaching, could the invocation of Article 50 impact the results?

It’s unlikely that the UK will be able to negotiate a deal with the EU before this years’ European elections. However, one must consider what could happen in the longer term. If the UK can walk away from the EU with a favourable deal, demonstrate that it can thrive outside of the EU and avoid large membership fees, this could set a different mood amongst remaining members.

The Eurozone remains under significant pressure in 2017. Brexit, elections and Italy’s banking problems are just a few to mention. If you are buying Euros in the foreseeable, it would be wise to speak with us regularly to help ease any concerns you may have about a currency transfer.


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