During January the Supreme Court Judgement on whether the Government will get to vote on Article 50 alone continues. The ruling could have a big impact on Sterling. If the ruling goes in favour of a Parliamentary vote this should bode well for the Pound. This could essentially mean a soft Brexit, with temporary trade deals in place while trade negotiations are in progress. If the ruling goes in favour of Government invoking Article 50 alone, I think the Pound will fall considerably.
A hard Brexit means trade negotiations will be elongated and could well take far longer than the two year expectations. It is telling that Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s ambassador to the EU has resigned. He was due to play a key role in the exit negotiations due to commence shortly. This could be attributed to him going against the two year exit estimation, stating it could take as long as a decade.
I am confident that Parliament will get the vote to have a say on Article 50 terms and the Pound will rally. I would estimate the ruling to come through between 12th-17th January. A cautious trader may of course wish to take the risk out of the transfer and move before this ruling.
This morning there are several data releases of interest for those trading Sterling. Construction PMI, Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals are all released in quick succession. Construction PMI is a measure of business conditions in the UK construction sector. The consensus is for a slight improvement, however if the figures are some way from expectation there could be swing in Pound value.
Tomorrow morning will see the release of Services PMI and there is an expected to be a slight contraction. I would not expect any significant movement for Sterling on this release.
The outcome of the Supreme Court hearing is due in the next week or two, and anyone with a foreign currency requirement may wish to protect their position ahead of the result. Get in touch with your key account manager or call us on 01494 725 353. If you have any questions regarding my report you can email me - Daniel at email@example.com.
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