The Leave camp finds support ahead of the Referendum which will likely result in Sterling weakness this week. You can view live exchange rates for a number of currencies here.

Sterling might fall further this week

With just 17 days to go to the EU Referendum the Leave campaign is gaining a real advantage with a Telegraph poll of 19,000 subscribers showing 69% backing Brexit. With the Guardian poll last week putting Leave ahead by four points sterling is coming back under pressure. The Remain vote is still however the perceived favourite according to the bookmaker’s figures. According to Betfair there is a 72% chance of Remain with a Leave vote at 28%. What is clear is that Remain’s previous lead has slipped and nothing can be taken for granted over the next 3 weeks. Last week David Cameron had a shaky performance on TV whilst Michael Gove’s performance on Sky the following night was well received, The Leave camp is definitely on the front foot.

Key dates up ahead are tomorrow‘s ITV studio debate between Nigel Farage and David Cameron at 9pm, this Thursday’s ITV debate at 8pm with Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon from the SNP Scottish National Party. There are two BBC Question Time debates on the 15th (Leave) and 19th (Remain) before a crucial BBC live event at Wembley with key figures and representatives on the 21st. Channel 4 will then hold a live programme the night before the 23rd with the result expected early morning on the 24th.

Sterling will continue to react to the polls

The two main issues are immigration and the economy. Looking at the Scottish Referendum and the General Election last year it seems the economic arguments trumped other ideals when it came to voting intentions. With the Leave camp enjoying some favour the pound has come under pressure and even if the polls do point more towards Remain before the vote, the markets will still have to price in the possibility of Brexit which could see some large unexpected movements.

Important economic data this week for the pound is the latest Industrial and Manufacturing data due Wednesday morning at 09.30 am before the latest NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) GDP (Gross Domestic Product) estimate at 3pm. Thursday is the latest Trade Balance data at 09.30, all in all a fairly quiet week for data. The main driver for the pound will be the TV debates and how well or badly received the different sides are received. The Leave camp clearly have some momentum at present, the extent to which this can be sustained will be key to determining how the pound performs this week.

As we are now weeks away from the Referendum, there is a chance that Sterling will weaken until an outcome is reached. We therefore strongly suggest you get in touch with us to discuss your options which could save you money. Give us a call on 01494 725 353 or email me here and Ill be happy to assist you further.


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