The most noticeable event happening this week will be the UK public going to the polls for the general election.
The bookies are backing the Conservatives to gain a majority, with odds of 1/3. The odds of a Labour majority are 20/1, and for no majority currently sits at 5/2 with Bet365. The odds are also being backed by Jeremy Stretch at CIBC World Markets, who believes a Tory majority is the most likely outcome. The Pound may be in for some fluctuation with the build-up to Thursday, and the Pound might weaken in the build-up to the vote. However, this morning GBPEUR has broken through 1.19.
Other economic data released to look out for this week in the UK are Tuesday’s Manufacturing production (YoY) data, which is predicted to strengthen, albeit only a little. Also, GDP data for October is set to be released, and FXstreet are expecting a rise from -0.1% to 0.1% from the previous month. This rise from negative to positive may increase the strength of the Pound. Both pieces of data are set to be released at 9:30am tomorrow.
The Euro is likely in for an eventful end to the week as well, with lots of major releases of data on Thursday. The biggest announcement is the interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB). The decision of the ECB can influence the Euro. In general, an increase in interest rates can cause gains, although if the rates are cut there is a likelihood of the Euro weakening. This week, the rates are predicted to stay pretty much where they are, but anyone looking to buy or sell Euros should keep an eye on this piece of data.
The results of the ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic sentiment surveys are also being released tomorrow. If the investors asked are positive and optimistic about the future, we could see the Euro strengthen. However, if they believe that the future is less positive, the Euro may see weakness. Speak to your account manager to see how you could potentially benefit from changes to the Euro over the coming week.
The US dollar has a lot of potential to change over the coming week. Tuesday is seeing data releases of Non-Farm Payroll productivity and unit labour costs. These are not predicted to change dramatically, with Non-Farm looking to gain by 0.1% to -0.2%, and Unit Labour to weaken by 0.1% to 3.5%.
Wednesday is set to become a big day for the US economy, with the Federal Reserve releasing their projections for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. Also in this report will be each Fed members’ interest rate forecasts.
Also, the Federal Reserve is reporting on interest rates, with an increase historically causing an increase in Dollar strength. The Fed's rate decision’s accompanying Monetary Policy Statement is coming out too, which is known to create volatility and can cause a short term negative or positive change in the US dollar. If you are looking to move US dollars, keep an eye out for the release at 7pm on Wednesday, and speak to your account manager for more information on how the data releases could affect you.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to release its latest interest rate decision and a Monetary Policy Assessment on Thursday morning. If it comes out positively, it should cause price stability and build blocks for future strength. The assessment projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions. Also, the assessment contains the SNB’s assessment of the current economic outlook, so a negative outlook may cause the CHF to fall in strength. These reports will be released at 8:30 on Thursday 12th December.
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