Sterling has risen on renewed confidence a deal is likely to be struck in the coming weeks on the UK’s exit terms from the EU. The market is eagerly awaiting and expecting some more positive news relating to the finer details of this situation.

The weekend news saw the Sunday Times reporting a breakthrough this week that would allow progress to a ‘special’ November EU Summit, the one that was previously cancelled. According to the report the Prime Minister's cabinet are meeting tomorrow to discuss the plans, before the EU agree to the special summit later in the week, possibly Friday.

Sterling may well rise further depending on how well received the news is and it appears we could have a very choppy week ahead for the pound.

Currency Pair% Change in 3 monthsDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR4.1%€8,980 EUR
GBPUSD4.64%$11,804 USD
GBPAUD7.97%$27,634 AUD
UK economy exceeds forecasts in November, activity still contracts

Economic news for the week ahead

At 09.30 am today is the latest UK Services data. Services accounts for 79% of GDP, Gross Domestic Product. Figures are expected to come in at 53.3, a small decline on last month but still in positive territory. Sterling may well find some further buoyancy on the news as it underlines the economy is still performing well despite uncertainties over Brexit.

In other economic news for the week ahead GDP data is released on Friday at 09.30. The expectation is for 0.6% for Q3, an increase on Q2 which came in at 0.4%. Whilst important these two economic releases will not carry quite the same weight as the political news, but could help exacerbate or temper any moves on sterling from the political news.

Where next for the pound and Brexit?

Whilst there is increasing positivity surrounding sterling there are still many hurdles ahead, namely on the finer details of the Irish border. No one can be completely sure exactly what path the talks will take, a ‘no-deal’ is still a possibility. Assuming the November EU Summit passes successfully, December is being pencilled in for the House of Commons vote on the final acceptance of the UK’s exit terms.

We have learnt that nothing is easily resolved on the Brexit and there have been many false dawns that have left clients hoping for a stronger pound, disappointed.

A complex issue like Brexit cannot just be simplified into one day or week where everything will be magically resolved and expectations for significant progress, whilst welcome must be accompanied with caution.

If you have a position to buy or sell the pound, this could be a crucial week ahead on Brexit, please contact our team to discuss further.

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