The Government yesterday released the latest figures that they borrowed at the lowest level for the April-July period since 2002, running a surplus of £2bn. This should now give Chancellor Phillip Hammond extra money to spend in the Autumn budget. The Sterling report below looks into the way that potential falling debt could impact monetary policy in the UK, with the table below showing the difference in return you could have achieved when selling £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past month.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPNZD1.86%CAD $7,120

The Government could soon start to see the UK’s debt fall and we may see the UK move away from some of the strict austerity measures. This news yesterday did have a small effect on Sterling with the GBP/EUR rate climbing half a cent from the low in the morning.

How likely is a deal at present?

Brexit Talk Meetings

Dominic Rabb and Michele Barnier met yesterday for the latest stage of talks between the UK and the EU. Both have suggested that there is still much to talk about however talks will continue all the way to the 29th March 2019 if there isn’t a deal agreed.

Tomorrow the UK Government are expected to release a series of technical notes which will allow people and businesses to prepare for a no-deal scenario.

This will be followed by a speech from Brexit Minister Rabb as he will lay out plans as to how the Government plans to mitigate risk of a no-deal scenario.

There has been talks previously of medical and food shortages taking place, however one thing that might be a certainty is the effect that it could have on Sterling. A no-deal scenario could have a serious short term loss and it could take years for Sterling to bounce back to the pre-referendum levels. As we move towards the end of October it will become clearer what the chances of a no Brexit deal are.

There were rumours towards the end of last week the Michel Barnier would deliver a statement last Friday which didn’t come to fruition. However, this week once talks have taken place with Dominic Rabb there could be some sort of statement on how the talks have gone. This could provide for some volatile trading towards the end of the week.

From a data perspective is a quiet end to the week with no major releases scheduled. However, that doesn’t mean to say that there might not be market moving events taking place. Make sure you’re in contact with you broker so that they can keep you informed if you have an upcoming requirement.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.