GBP impact on Supreme Court ruling

The hugely important decision from the Supreme Court ruling is now upon us for the case Miller & Dos Santos vs Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. We will finally have a definitive verdict on whether or not UK Prime Minster Theresa May has the power to invoke Article 50 to begin EU withdrawal negotiations without an Act of Parliament. The outcome is to be released at 09:30 and high volatility for the pound is expected.

Last Tuesday saw the Pound rally by over 2% against the Euro and 3% against the US dollar when Theresa May outlined her Brexit blueprint. It highlights how much of an impact these political elements are having on the price of sterling. Although Theresa May has stated that Parliament will have a say on the final Brexit deal there are likely to be complications for government before that happens and this is why this ruling is so important today.

GBP – Issue of Single Market

Should Theresa May lose the appeal then this is expected to be something of a confidence boost for those in the political arena who wish to keep Britain with as close ties as possible with Europe, which could include remaining in the single market, something Theresa May has stated is not possible. There have for example been suggestions from certain political opponents for a second referendum on the terms of any deal to be put forward to the British public, which would create even more uncertainty, should it ever happen. Politics are very much at work.

There are wider implications which surround the dissolved assemblies whilst another court case to be heard in Dublin will test whether or not Article 50 can be reversed once set in motion. An extended period of volatility is likely to follow if Theresa May is forced to jump through hoops.
If Theresa May does with the appeal though, which cannot be ruled out then the pound could still fall. Although we have now been given the general plan for Brexit which has proved positive for the pound so far, this issue surrounding proximity to the single market does still appear to be major factor for Sterling.

Those clients with a pending currency requirement would be wise to get in touch with so much riding on this ruling today. Considering the huge market reaction just one week ago today, there is nothing to say we won’t see similar volatility. Both sides of the case will be given sight of the verdict an hour and a half before it is delivered publically, which means it is out now.

Economic data is light for the UK today with just UK Public Sector Net Borrowing released at the same time as the Supreme Court ruling which will inevitably be completely overshadowed.

Get in touch with your broker today if you have a foreign currency requirement, as todays hearing may benefit or worsen Sterlings position. Call us on 01494 725 353 or email me at jll@currencies.co.uk to discuss your requirement.

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