GBP Impact from Brexit bill in House of Lords

Next week sees a return to politics after the half term parliamentary recess where the Brexit bill will come under scrutiny in the House of Lords. It is anticipated that members will try to attach conditions which could slow the process of Brexit down. However it is generally expected that the bill will go through without a glitch as it did in the House of Commons where there was an overwhelming majority in favour of passing the bill.

It is now four to six weeks to go when Article 50 is expected to be invoked which will commence the exit negotiations. The EU are anticipating that Article 50 will be invoked 9th March although Brexit Secretary David Davis stated yesterday that he does not recognise this date and has made clear that it would happen “by the end of March, sometime during March.” Interestingly a summit is being held to celebrate the EU’s 60th anniversary on the 25th March with the other 27 member states.

The problem in predicting where rates will head is that a departure from the EU has never happened before. As such there is a real risk that the Pound could slide lower against all of the major currencies. No country has ever left the EU and we don’t yet know what the stance from EU27 will definitely look like in terms of how Britain will be treated. This is in itself a worry for the UK and hence the Pound. Britain as it stands is now on course to be the first nation to make the historic move and even beat flagging Greece to the exit whilst Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has described the situation as Theresa May’s Hunger Games approach to Brexit.

Those clients with pending currency requirements would be wise to consider their options well before the political fireworks commence in these coming weeks. UK unemployment data is released this morning where it expected to remain steady at 4.8%. Any improvement in the numbers is likely to see a short term boost for the Pound. Get in touch with your broker as early as possible if youre considering a transfer on 01494 725 353, alternatively, you can email me here and Ill be happy to assist.

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