With the currency markets moving every two seconds, it can be vitally important to be aware of what is driving the currencies in or out of your favour. The table below shows the difference in a number of currencies you would have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past month.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
Sterling has dipped across the board as the initial enthusiasm over the progress on Brexit fades.
The outcome of the EU summit was widely anticipated by the market and the big move was really on Friday the 8th December when it became apparent the deal would go through.
This week there are a number of key issues to move the market including the market perception of what any future UK - EU trade deal will look like. Whilst Sterling is lower than the higher points of the last few weeks, I think the overall outlook for the Pound is much more positive following last week’s news.
I think we have gently removed the prospect of a ‘no deal’ scenario which is what had really seen the Pound lower in 2017. If we can move into 2018 with the no deal scenario less likely this will benefit the Pound.
Of course the path ahead is by no means smooth and there will undoubtedly be blackspots once again for the Pound. I just believe that perhaps now, the worst is over as in the markets eyes, it is proved that the UK and EU can come together, we have seen that progress can be made.
Important UK data to end this week comes in the form of Thursday’s PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data at 09.30 am and then Friday’s latest GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Overall expectations are for these releases to support a slightly more buoyant economy ahead.
With UK Unemployment at a 42 year low and the UK economy now increasing in its rate of growth the path ahead looks more positive than the worst case scenarios and sentiments that took us back to near parity on GBPEUR and below 1.20 on GBPUSD. Mark Carney will also give a speech tomorrow at 13.15 but this is not predicted to be a market mover.
Of course, the fragility of the improved outlook should not be underestimated. One negative headline, comment or data release could easily upset this improved outlook and belief for the UK and the Pound. Clients looking to buy a foreign currency with the Pound should be very aware of the potential for the Pound to struggle and not be reliant on rates just magically climbing in their favour.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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