This week on Thursday we will see the release of retail sales figures, which are likely to be closely watched following the drop seen in the last release - which was attributed to bad weather affecting spending. The Sterling report below looks at how this could affect exchange rates in the coming weeks. The table below shows the difference in Pounds you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past week.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
Sterling exchange rates begun the week bearishly yesterday, with Sterling falling against all major currency pairs even if only slightly in some cases.
The drop yesterday could be attributed to profit taking after the Pound hit some of its highest levels in May towards the end of last week.
I personally think the Pound started the week bearishly as investors brace themselves for some important data releases this week surrounding the UK economy. Some economists are expecting the releases to carry the potential to move markets as the results may impact the Bank of England’s monetary policy plans this year.
Perhaps the key time to watch the rates this week is on Thursday at 9.30am.
It’s been heavily reported in the news this year that the High Street is changing after a number of household companies have either gone into liquidation, or been forced to close a substantial amount of branches. Mothercare and Carluccio’s are the most recent victims of the retail industry going online, with Toys R Us, House of Fraser, Next, Marks&Spencer and Maplin all announcing either entire closures or substantial plans to close branches, to name just a few.
The health of the UK’s retail sector will be covered on Thursday morning with a 1.8% increase expected on the previous year’s figure, and a 1.3% increase on the previous months figure.
The reason this data is likely to be watched more closely than usual is because the previous report showed a dramatic drop that markets weren’t expecting. Sterling fell slightly but much of the drop was attributed to the poor weather deterring shoppers. This time there isn’t a ‘fall guy’ for lack of a better term, and I expect to see the Pound drop should the figures disappoint again.
Aside from Thursday morning it’s also worth keeping an eye on the rates at 9.30am on Wednesday when a raft of data will be released. The main release will cover the UK’s inflation levels (Consumer Price Index) with an expectation of 2.3%, which is a fall from the previous figure of 2.5%. With Wage Growth in the UK outpacing Inflation for the first time in a year recently, and fuel prices hitting the highest levels in 3.5 years, I expect markets to follow this release closely. Do feel free to register your interest if you wish to be updated should there be a market reaction.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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