Theresa May will return to Parliament today to start up talks with the Labour opposition in hopes of breaking the Brexit deadlock before the forthcoming European elections in June. However, more than 70 local association chiefs who have been angry at her handling of Brexit have called for an extraordinary general meeting to discuss her leadership. Reports of a non-binding vote will be held at that National Conservative Convention Extraordinary General Meeting. This will again cause stress of the leadership and direction of Brexit, along with increasing the undue uncertainty for the currency.

Currency Pair% Change (Month)Difference on £200,000
GBPCAD1.76%CAD $3,520

Any vote of no-confidence by local party campaigners won't be binding. But if it did pass, it would be another example of the pressure in the party. In Parliament, there are continued calls from some for a rule change to allow another confidence vote by MPs. Which as it stands Mrs May is safe until December from her last challenge.

Economic Data That Could Impact GBP Exchange Rates

There are still divisions about what the ‘right way forward’ is with Brexit. Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson insisted Labour must back a second Brexit referendum and not "sit on the fence" any longer.

On the other side of the channel Jean Claude Junker says that Britain could still leave the bloc without a deal. Nobody knows how Brexit will end. This is creating great uncertainty. “There is still a fear that there will be a hard Brexit without any withdrawal treaty arrangements. I hope that the British will make use of this time and not waste it again.” MP’s will return today with many questions to be brought forward about the government direction on strategy to break the deadlock in parliament.

But the Easter calm looks set to be short-lived. A change in leader of the Conservatives could mean the UK could be under the leadership of a 'Brexiteer' Prime Minister by late summer, we believe this creates the kind of uncertainty that could weigh on Sterling over coming weeks and months. Clients with a sterling need may wish to get in touch with their account manager to discuss options available to best plan currency requirements.

Sterling stagnate after mixed bag of data

There is little data this week from the UK perspective with the most important releases being the Consortium of British Industry (CBI) and Public Sector Net Borrowing is. This measures how much the government needs to borrow to meet its outgoings in the month. The data on Tuesday is forecast to show a relatively small £50m (£0.05bn) sum was required to cover the shortfall, as compared to the previous negative sum which the value of sterling might be set for another knock.


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