Over the last few weeks, data releases have started to have a bigger impact on the currencies in question. There is also due to be updates on Covid-19 restrictions with new regulations about who you can see, where and if going abroad in the summer will be a possibility.
There is a lot of market data this month to look out for and to keep on top of. The first of which is the Bank of England's monetary policy report, where many different topics are discussed such as the outlook for the future and what future interest rate and inflation numbers might look like. All this can give valuable insight into the Bank of England's outlook for the coming months. This data release on Thursday will be hotly watched by investors and anyone looking to see what the future of the United Kingdom's economy might look like. Therefore, this might provide an indicator for what is in store for the pound and its potential future strength.
Later in the month, Prime Minister Mr Johnson is also due to speak about the next relaxation of rules of Covid-19 which will come into effect no sooner than the 17th of May. The road map released to outline the full plan indicated that people will be able to meet in the same rule of six or two families, but they will now be allowed to be inside. This is a positive for many companies who did not meet the requirements for the previous restrictions such as pubs and restaurants which did not have the space for outdoor seating, also fans will be allowed back into stadiums up to four thousand or half capacity whichever is lower. This is all good news for not just people and the country but the economy, as long as the COVID infection numbers are staying consistent and not rising the third step of the roadmap should stay in effect, this does seem highly likely as well with more rapid tests being made available and the number of UK adults having their vaccines constantly rising.
Over the weekend there was some positive news for a few countries in Europe. Portugal is one of the front runners having entered the final step of its Covid release plan which means more people can meet up outside and the curfew is extended later into the night, giving residents more time in the evening and reducing the post-work rush in supermarkets and shopping centres. The border between Portugal and Spain has now also been reopened for free travel between the two countries. This is a very positive move regarding allowing holidaymakers back to the country and has also helped increase the number of property sales in the different hotspots in both Portugal and Spain. With more people being able to travel, more money can be put back into the economies of the different counties which in turn can affect the value of the euro which has managed to hold its own against a strengthening pound over the last few weeks, holding its value to around the 1.15 level. France is also due to follow in the footsteps of Portugal and Spain with president Macron announcing late last week that France will be easing its restrictions which were put in place to try and reduce the rapidly increasing infection rate at the time. The new rules will allow people to return to bars, restaurants and non-essential shops. Macron is also going to permit international travel after the first week of June but only if a vaccine passport, a recent negative test or proof of recent recovery is shown. This is also very good news for the euro as with more people being able to go out and due to the new rules to come into effect later it should encourage more people to go out and get their vaccine.
The beginning of the week is due to be quiet in regards to data being released in the United States. However, the end of the week does see two quite important releases to keep an eye on if you are looking to take advantage of a movement in the dollar. Friday sees the non-farm employment figures or also known as the non-farm payroll being released for the month of April. This data can be very influential to the US economy and the value of the dollar, the data shows how many jobs were created in the last month and is a very accurate way of measuring consumer spending month on month and consequently the strength of the economy. Due to President Biden's positive vaccine roll out the last few months have seen job creation rise and the month of April is set to be no exception to the trend. This Friday is also due to see the percent of unemployment in the US as well, this follows in a similar vein to the non-farm payroll. This month if the analyst are correct, we are due to see unemployment drop 10% from a year ago leaving it just below 6 percent in total. These numbers are used to calculate monetary policy and set a long-term plan for the future which can make the US a more attractive place for investors which in turn can help the Greenbacks value gain to its major currency pairs increase.
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