With Clintons recent health concerns, Trump has taken the lead in some polls which could have ramifications for the US Dollar as we approach November.
Past history tells us elections have a negative impact on the countries' currency value due to the uncertainty it causes. In recent weeks Donald Trump has been gaining momentum and a victory is becoming more likely. The property tycoon is continuing to keep Hillary Clintons health in the spotlight and has even stated he will release his own health records in the near future.
The consensus on the market is that Hillary Clinton is the safe bet for the stability of the US Dollar, as you know what you will get. Where as Donald Trump is unpredictable and therefore a risk. Either way the closer we get to the November decision I believe the US dollar will devalue. Therefore I predict that GBPUSD will be fluctuating in the 1.40s come November when we find out who will be the next President. If you are selling US Dollars to buy Pounds before November, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your transfer.
In addition there has been major hype this year in regards to when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and I believe the Presidential election is giving Chairlady Janet Yellen a valid reason to hold off. The central bank last year exclaimed it was likely four hikes would occur throughout 2016, however so far this year we haven’t seen one. Personally until the election is over I believe the FED will hold fire and if Hillary Clinton is elected the FED will raise interest rates in December.
This afternoon the US release a host of economic data including Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless claims, Industrial production and many more. When lots of different data releases are released at the same time, it’s very difficult to predict the direction of exchange rates. Therefore if you are trading dollars today expect a volatile market this afternoon. If you don’t want to gamble with the price you are presently receiving it might be worth trading this morning.
If you have a US Dollar buying or selling requirement, the US elections could change your needs quite significantly. Call our trading floor today on 01494 725 353 if you would like to know more on how this could impact you.
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