It has been a tough week for cable exchange rates since the Bank of England announced it would cut its interest rate last Thursday following the economic down turn following the Brexit.
On Friday last week, America’s non-farm payroll report smashed expectations of 180,000 with actual figures coming in at 255,000 and a 2.6% rise in wage growth. With such a strong US labour market, predictions for another rate hike before the end of year have now risen to 55%. I personally don’t believe that the US will raise rates before the elections start in November.
Leading republican Donald trump sparked outrage last night at a rally in North Carolina by hinting that his followers could stop her from taking power and their right to their guns by exercising them.
There has seemingly been an online backlash with critics claiming that what he is ‘saying is very dangerous’. The recent faults in Donald Trump’s campaigns have been more common of late, and hint that if he were to get into power, USA’s reputation and therefore the dollar could be effected.
This week I would urge clients to look out for the most recent Retail Sales figures for July. The expectation is for a slight decline down to 0.4% from 0.6%, however if this is stronger than expected, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates dip below 1.30 and stay there.
Today the JOLTS Job openings report is released. This is favoured by Fed Chair Lady Janet Yellen as a better measure of the US labour market, with expectations that there were more job openings than the previous month. This is likely to provide further support for the US dollar later today.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353.
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