GBP suffers following stall in house prices

Yesterday saw Sterling fall to the lowest levels seen against the Euro in three years, presenting a fantastic opportunity for clients selling Euros to purchase Pounds. Sterling in fact fell across the board throughout the course of Thursday’s trading, with cable dipping below 1.30 for the second time this year.

One of the main reasons for this fall in Sterling’s value could be attributed to the news that house prices rose at their slowest pace in three years for July due to a lack of confidence since the Brexit vote. If you are in the process of selling a property in Europe and are looking to repatriate your funds to the UK, this may well be welcome news for you. As a result of Sterling’s recent demise, a property sale in Euros of €250,000 would now achieve you an extra £37,288 compared to this time last year! Registering with us will give you access to our Euro client account details, and you will also be assigned a personal broker. Our brokers have an average tenure of 7 years, so are best placed to help with the timing of your currency transfer.

When should I buy Euros?

On the flip side, anyone buying Euros at present may be wishing they had secured their currency this time last year. However, on the face of things, considering many analysts were predicting GBP/EUR to hit parity if there were a Brexit vote, I believe that current rates still offer good value. The average rate over the past ten years is around 1.24 and Sterling was lower than current levels against the Euro during periods in 2013 and 2012 – when there was no Brexit on the horizon and interest rates had not just been cut to record-lows. In my opinion, those buying Euros may be wise to consider locking in their rate of exchange now, as I feel that there is room for GBP/EUR to fall further in the coming months.

A survey released by Reuters yesterday highlighted that consumer confidence has dipped to a 2-year low, so even though borrowing is cheap, I believe that consumers will be reluctant to spend in the current climate which could knock economic data for the UK and therefore the Pound. The survey also announced fears from economists that the UK is beginning to slip in to a mild recession and that there could even be a further interest rate cut in November.

With this in mind, clients with a GBP requirement may want to keep an eye on inflation figures and retails sales figures for July which are released next week and will give us a good indication of how the Brexit vote has affected the economy. A majority of July data has been negative so far, so if these follow suit then we could be in for further Sterling weakness.

If you have any questions about todays report, please email me at rjh@currencies.co.uk, thanks for reading.

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