Today’s Pound Sterling report will address the factors that are likely to affect GBP exchange rates in the coming days. In the table below you’ll see high to low movement for a number of GBP currency pairs and the difference when exchanging £200,000 over the last 30 days.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR3.26%€7,240
GBPUSD2.07%$5,400
GBPAUD3.95%$13,220

Priti Patel resigns

Sterling exchange rates fell across the board yesterday, as UK Prime Minister Theresa May appears to be battling with more members of the Conservative party. Since the General election when Mrs May lost her majority, her position has been under pressure and she is back in the spotlight.

Priti Patel has admitted to holding unsanctioned meetings with Israel’s public security minister Gilad Erdan on 7th September, and another meeting in New York with Yuval Rotem an Israeli official. Yesterday morning UK Prime Minister Theresa May summoned the Secretary of State for International Development back from her pre-arranged trip in Uganda and overnight Patel handed in her resignation to the Prime Minister which has caused another headache for Mrs May.

This is the second cabinet minister that has resigned in the space of two weeks, after Sir Michael Fallon quit as Defence Secretary. A reshuffle will surely take place next week which could put further pressure on an already weak government and consequently strain on sterling.

Will May face a vote of no confidence? May has faced persistent pressure and threats to her leadership since the snap election she called in June last year which surrendered the Tory party’s majority, but it seems that the pressure is now beginning to mount further and this is having a negative effect on the Pound whilst speculation persists. A confidence vote would require 48 MPs to sign a ‘letter of no confidence’. If that were to be the case it could throw the Pound in to disarray and could completely alter the course of Brexit. Today there is a cabinet meeting held by Theresa May which will be centred on plans in the event of a no deal Brexit. The aim is to give the public and businesses some advice on measures they can put in place to cope with the fallout from a no deal. This meeting is likely to add to the current political uncertainty surrounding the UK government and therefore the fallout from the meeting could have an impact on the Pound.

Brexit negotiations resume

UK and EU officials are meeting again today for the next round of Brexit negotiations. The UK Prime Minister has tried to paint a positive picture in recent weeks that progression has been made in Brexit talks. However a report yesterday in the Financial Times, suggested that large financial institutions within London had gone rogue and met with US commerce secretary Wilbur Ross to discuss life after Brexit. It’s clear to see that the Conservative party is under pressure to deliver and I actually believe we are getting close to crunch time. Even though Theresa May is under pressure I believe that the Prime Minister is close to securing a deal in regards to EU citizens’ rights which should open the door to stage 2 negotiations (trade negotiations).

Forecasters are split to whether the pound will rise or fall in the months to come because of Brexit. Nevertheless I am optimistic that we are closer to discussing a trade partnership, than many media stations are suggesting.

Governor Mark Carney issues warning to Theresa May

Earlier in the week Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney told the press that investment is not reaching UK shores. He stated businesses are holding off investing in the UK, until they are fully aware of the deal the UK will receive. You would have thought this would have been seen as dovish by the Governor and the pound to have had a slow start to the week however he went on to say that the UK economy would be ‘booming’ at present if Brexit negotiations were not on going which provided opportunity for clients buying a foreign currency earlier in week.

It seems like the Bank of England are putting pressure on the Conservative government for progression, this is another reason why I expect in the upcoming months major volatility for sterling exchange rates.

In other news keep an eye today on the NIESR GDP estimate. This release has the potential to have a major impact on sterling exchange rates, however I wouldn’t be surprised to see the figure remain at 0.4%. In addition Friday morning at 9.30am is the latest release of industrial and manufacturing numbers.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency exchange, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.