This Pound Sterling forecast examines upcoming events and data that could impact the Pound which could affect any currency transfer.

Manufacturing activity falls for first time in three years

The Pound had enjoyed a good run of form over the past few weeks due to the Remain in the EU camp gathering momentum, offering some good spikes for any clients looking to purchase Euros. Over the past 7 days however, with UK data failing to impress, we have seen the Pound plummet by over 2.5%. To put this in to perspective, this fall in the Pound’s value could have made a €150,000 purchase over £3,000 more expensive this week compared to the end of last week.

The fall this week could be mainly attributed to Tuesday’s drop in UK manufacturing activity. This was the first time that manufacturing activity fell in three years and as a result we saw the Pound weaken immediately. A slowdown in Oil and gas production has had an impact on this figure, but I believe the main factor is the uncertainty that is being caused due to the upcoming EU referendum in June, which is denting confidence and acting as a drag on the economy.

Slowdown in Construction Sector weakens Sterling

To add to the Pound’s woes, there was also a slowdown yesterday in new orders for the construction industry, highlighting the weakest levels in almost three years. Again, I feel that the uncertainty ahead of the referendum is stalling major spending decisions across the construction sector until the future of the UK within Europe is clearer.

In my opinion, I believe that in the run up to the referendum we are going to see a drag on UK economic data across the board and as such we could see further losses for the Pound between now and June 23rd. If you are buying Euros it may be sensible to speak with one of our experienced currency brokers to help you time your exchange over the coming weeks.

If you are selling Euros to purchase Sterling following an overseas house sale for example, it may be wise to act on any further Sterling weakness we may encounter over the coming weeks. This morning Markit Services figures are released which give an indication to the strength of the UK services sector. I feel that this will not be exempt from the Referendum’s uncertainty and believe that we could see further falls in the Pound’s value this morning.

Voters head to the polls for Super Thursday

There are a series of elections taking place across the UK today where voters will be electing a new Mayor of London as well as Police and Crime Commissioners across the UK. Results will start to be released from the early hours of this morning and as events unfold I would recommend keeping in touch with your broker here to keep up to speed with all the latest news.

For more news on GBP exchange rates and transferring money overseas you can speak with any of our currency dealers on 01494 725 353. Alternatively, you can email me directly at rjh@currencies.co.uk.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.