French election could have major implications for the Euro

The French election will commence on 23rd April, should no candidate win a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates will be held on 7th May. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question.

Francois Fillon has lost significant ground in the presidential race due to a fraud scandal - he has been charged for paying his wife a significant wage for work she has not done. Emmanuel Macron, the former economy minister has a good chance of gaining power but the worrying thing for the Euro is increased popularity for Marine Le Pen.

Is the Euro too Strong?

Marine Le Pen is the Head of the National Front and is strongly anti-European Union and promises a referendum on France’s EU membership. She has pledged to dramatically reduce immigration, re-instituting border control and has also mentioned ditching the Euro. Current polls are very tight between Macron and Le Pen and many are predicting a second round of voting. Despite Macron being ahead in the polls there is a very real possibility Le Pen could get in. The reliability of polls has proved questionable in recent history. We only have to look at the UK referendum and the recent US election to demonstrate this. The silent vote should not be ruled out, I think this had a big bearing on the UK referendum. I think there are many who have very strong opinions in regards to immigration, but are scared to voice their opinions in public for fear of being branded a racist. Putting a folded piece of paper in a ballot box means they have the opportunity to say their piece without such fears.

If Marine Le Pen gains power I would expect significant falls in Euro value. If I was a Euro seller I would consider moving at current levels.

ECB Monetary Policy Accounts could cause a stir

Today is the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. This contains an overview of the financial market, economic and monetary developments. It provides rationale behind current monetary policy and can provide an indication as to monetary policy moving forward. Traders watch these events very closely in an attempt to make gains on fluctuations on the exchange following remarks from the ECB. As a consequence we can see swings in currency value.

I would consider your position ahead of the French elections this year, with the shock of Brexit and Trump last year polls have had a tendency to be inaccurate. Speak to a member of our team today on 01494 725 353 to learn how this could affect your Euro requirement.

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