The protests in France continued through Christmas bringing the timescale up to six-weeks now. The French President (Macron) has lost a great deal of support since coming into office and now there are concerns that these protests have disrupted the country enough to have taken a toll of the country’s economy.
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There has been market commentary to suggest France could fall into recession, but not to the extent that there is for Italy especially now that Italy’s manufacturing sector has officially shrunk for a 3rd straight month.
I’m of the opinion that the GBP/EUR rate would be considerably higher if it wasn’t for the Brexit uncertainty weighing on the Pound’s value. Those of our clients holding onto Euros and waiting for an improved rate to make their transfer into Pounds should be weary how good the current levels are historically speaking, as well as keeping on top of the issues that persist within the trading bloc.
Yesterday it emerged that a left wing political party in Germany (Aufstehen which translates to Get Up) plans to copy the Gilet Jaunes and begin protests on the streets of Germany. The potential for the protests to spread is another potential downside for the Euro so it’s worth keeping an eye on this.
Over the past week many of our clients either already based in Spain, or planning to move there has been given some reassuring words from Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez.
He confirmed that his Government is working on measures to ensure the rights of Britons living in Spain would remain unchanged, even in the wake of a no-Brexit deal. These conditions will of course depend on the rights of Spaniards in the UK remaining the same.
Although this is unlikely to impact currency values initially, it could pave the way for a smoother Brexit which would boost Sterling in my opinion.
The busiest day for economic updates from the Eurozone will be Friday, as Inflation data will be released at 10.00am, which is just after the Services PMI data at 9.00am on Friday. If you wish to plan around these releases feel free to get in touch.
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