Is it time to sell my New Zealand Dollar position?

The New Zealand Dollar has found plenty of support over the past few days, with gains of over five cents in the past week. GBP/NZD rates have dropped below 1.70, having opened last week over 1.76. The Pound is under increasing pressure due to the now well publicised comments by UK Prime Minster Theresa May regarding the UK’s Brexit and her hard-line stance on the matter.

The markets are fearful that the UK could be left out in the cold following our exit from the EU and have reacted accordingly, with the heavy loses a result of the on-going uncertainty.

Whilst Sterling has found support above 1.70 I am not anticipating a major spike under current market conditions but due to the recent market volatility it is extremely difficult to predict exactly how economic and political events will unfold over the coming weeks and as such I would not be prepared to gamble on the current market.

Those clients holding NZD have been given a window opportunity to sell their positons at some of the best levels of the past 10 years and this is an extremely favourable position to be in.

Whilst I am not expecting sustainable Sterling strength in the short-term most of the UK’s economic woes have now been factored into the current exchange rates in my opinion. Therefore, you could argue that the only way is up and any positive information released by Theresa May regarding how we will facilitate our Brexit or a Supreme Court ruling that requires MP’s to vote on the triggering of Article 50, will benefit the Pound.

This is even more poignant after the weekend’s news, which indicated Theresa May has already agreed to a trade deal with New Zealand following our exit from the EU and for this reason I feel NZD sellers should take advantage if the current high and not gamble on what is such an unpredictable market.

We also need to consider that the NZD is a commodity based currency and as such relies heavily on its export trade, in particular dairy and therefor any global slowdown in this sector will hit their economy hard and the NZD would likely lose value as a result.

Tomorrow's Brexit plans from Theresa May could put further dents in GBP/NZD, and clients with a NZD requirement may benefit from getting in touch with their dedicated broker ahead of the event. Call us on 01494 725 353 to find out more.


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