With Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance, Unemployment, PMI and Factory Orders it could be an eventful day for the greenback.
Today we will see the release of a host of data from the US. It all begins at 13.30. Non-Farm payrolls is historically the biggest market mover. It is always released on the first Friday of the month and represents the number of jobs created in the previous month minus those in agriculture. It is extremely difficult to predict and as the US is the world’s largest economy this can cause significant change on the currency markets. Personally, I would avoid trading during this period which is sure to be extremely volatile.
This is followed by Trade Balance figures which a measure between imports and exports and then Purchase Managers Index (PMI) figures the most important of which is Services. This is a measure of employment and sales conditions and can cause movement. Despite global economic uncertainty at present the US economy still seems to be performing so I would expect the majority of data to continue on this trend and the dollar to strengthen as a result.
These events will affect the dollar’s position in the exchange short term, but the key in any GBP/USD trade this month is the EU referendum. A change in the polls can cause quick swings on GBP/USD. So keep a close eye on the polls in the build up to 23rd June. Ideally speak to your broker who should be constantly watching the markets to help you time your trade.