GBP/USD rates have remained fairly static this month, with the pair floating around 1.45 on the exchange for much of this period. The Pound has been unable to make any sustained move back through this threshold, whilst investors remain cautious regarding the current economic climate within the UK.
This is despite the growing uncertainty surrounding who will be the next US President. With Donald Trump confirmed as the Republican front-runner and Hilary Clinton close to leading the Democrats, the focus has shifted to the first Presidential polls. These made for grim reading for most Democrats and whilst they should be taken with a pinch of salt to some extent, the fact Trump was so close to his rival and even ahead in some interpretations, will give many cause for concern. How this will affect the USD is difficult to gauge at this stage but any market uncertainty is hardly likely to be of benefit to those clients holding the greenback.
With some key data releases for the US over the coming days expect this relative state of calm to change and I would expect additional volatility following today’s Manufacturing & Construction data, both of which are meant to show improvements. However, it is Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll figures and official US unemployment rate which are likely to hold the most weight for investors and with an improvement again expected on previous the USD may well hold its position and make a move back towards 1.43 on the exchange.