Relations between the EU and USA took another turn for the worst last week when Donald Trump accused Germany of buying Russian gas and then asking the USA to spend billions through the NATO alliance order to “protect” them from Moscow. More information on how kind of event can impact global markets and the Euro. The table below shows the range of exchange rates between Sterling and the Euro during the past month, with the difference in return you could have achieved when selling £200,000.00 during that time frame.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR1.84%€4,212
Will the US Dollar continue to weaken against the Pound?

This is a challenging period for EU leaders – who at best have a delicate relationship with Russia. Angela Merkel, Theresa May, have both tried to rise above the way Trump works with them and his tendency to accuse and threaten one day before changing his position the next.

It seems Trump tends to criticize his friends – Germany, NATO, UK - but not his enemies. This approach is increasingly being interpreted in Europe as one of classic bullying against the leaders Trump knows will not hit back.

Interestingly, Donald Trump suggested to Theresa May that she sue the European Union. May has stated she prefers to negotiate with the EU and I believe her open and transparent approach can only help negotiations later this year. If successful, we could see Sterling strength against the Euro.

Inflation Data only notable release

Although international relations are always worth keeping an eye on I believe economic data releases - and Brexit updates to a certain extent - will have more influence on Euro rates in the short term.

There is minor trade balance data released today from Italy at 8am and for Europe – who’s trade surplus is expected to increase - at 9am. Wednesday’s inflation data release will the biggest economic release of the week for the Euro.

France win World Cup – good for Euro?

France’s win at the World Cup could come at the perfect time for Emmanuel Macron – as his ratings have gone down for the first time since he became President. Domestic scrutiny should lessen somewhat for him, who will pursue his pro-France campaigns even more vigorously this summer. A feel-good France in the coming days will be good for Europe and the Euro.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.