The Canadian dollar finished the week on a high on Friday, with yet more positive employment data further justifying the Bank of Canada's optimism so far this year.
|Currency Pair||% Change (Month)||Difference on £200,000|
The Unemployment rate hit fresh lows at 5.4% with a net change of employment up by 27.5k. Both readings bode well for consumer spending throughout the summer and reflect the general optimism around the Canadian economy at present.
The releases come at quite a pivotal time. The US's trade face off with Mexico and China are clearly having an effect on growth prospects in the states which has gradually forced the Federal Reserve (Fed) into revaluating its monetary policy stance. The consensus is the Fed will consider cutting their interest rate by at least 0.25% by the end of 2019, with Canada likely to be forced into following suit in early 2020.
We have seen Canadian dollar exchange rates fluctuate as a result of this but it does seem governor of the BoC Stephen Polloz remains committed to the idea of raising rates higher to keep inflation in check.
At their last monetary policy meeting, Polloz alluded to the heightened geopolitical risks with China adding further trade restrictions onto it's north American partners, the domestic market continues to real underlying strength, particularly since the steel and aluminium tariffs were lifted by the US.
Friday's release went a long way to back this thought process up and the markets appeared to buy into it too, with the the GBP/CAD interbank rate smashing back below the 1.70 mark for the first time since early January and seemingly holding plenty of momentum.
This afternoon might bring the week's first real test to this momentum with key housing data due for release. On the basis of last week's releases you would imagine with record numbers of people in employment the number of new homes being built should be sky rocketing. The releases has been fairly inconsistent in recent months however reflecting a slight nervousness of the times. We may well see more volatility as a result.
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