Sterling ended last week on a positive note against the Euro, gaining a cent after the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday. GBPEUR rates have been stuck between 1.13 and 1.15 for the past three months. The table below shows the imact of this on exchange rates you could have achieved when buying a number of currencies with Sterling over the past month.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBP/EUR1.49%€3,386
GBP/USD2.51%$6,284
GBP/JPY4.37%1,311,956¥

Against the Dollar it also seemed like Sterling was in for a good ending to the week but fell from 1.345 to 1.327 at the close of trading. 

Will we edge closer to a Brexit deal this week?

Brexit to drive Pound exchange rates

As the next EU summit looms large on the 28th June, Brexit negotiations are intensifying, being scrutinised and creating a volatile environment for the Pound. Last week saw the Brexit bill undergo 15 rounds of voting in the House of Commons. It is set to go to the House of Lords today and back to the Commons on Monday.   

Chancellor Phillip Hammond will give his views on the UK economy at this year’s mansion house dinner on Thursday. He is also expected to outline Britain’s broad expectations for how financial services in London will work after Brexit. 

It is expected that this speech will be quite low key. He should not want to make much noise on Brexit at the moment and should outline the current position: the UK would like to have a regulatory system where both sides – the UK and the EU – recognise each other’s regulations and therefor the city could continue trading as it is.

What will be interesting is if he acknowledges that Europe has said no to this proposal and then has some sort of plan B in place.

The Pound is likely to be affected strongly by Brexit developments and clues from Hammond’s speech. For clients with a Sterling requirement I recommend getting in touch with our expert team today as even if negotiations on this side of the channel go well, I fear the Pound will be impacted negatively if the EU in some ways opposes the proposed Brexit bill.

Next interest rate hike in Summer or Autumn?

The UK retail sector has been a source of confidence and after excellent data for May offset negative data from march when the ‘beast from the east’ tested the British economy in all sectors.

There is very little economic data in the UK this week. Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate decision is expected to stay constant however movements for the Pound could come from the minutes released. These will give us clues as to whether the next interest rate hike will be in August or November. An earlier rate hike would imply tha,956 the BoE thinks the pickup in the retail sector outweighs weaker industrial and manufacturing data from early last week.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.