The French elections end this weekend with either Le Pen or Macron. A Macron win is expected to lead to Euro strength but if the race is tight how will investors react? The below table provides GBP/EUR exchange rate movements for the last 30 days.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
The general consensus from French pundits, newspapers and polling stations is that Wednesday night’s live T.V debate between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen was that the Pro EU candidate (Macron) got the upper hand.
With this in mind you would have expected Euro strength yesterday morning as a Macron win makes the future of the single currency more secure. However the reaction yesterday morning for the Euro was muted.
For the reference of the reader polls at present are suggesting the vote will be split 60%-40% in favour of Macron. However other reports are estimating 18% of people are still undecided. With this in mind and recent events such as Donald Trump becoming President and the UK leaving the EU, if you are trading currency expect the unexpected.
My personal view is that Macron will win however a marginal victory will not necessarily provide strength for the Euro. Next month is the National Assembly and a marginal victory would open the door for Le Pen to have a powerful voice in the foreseeable future within French politics. In turn she would continue to drive for a referendum and a ‘Frexit’ from the European Union.
On the other hand if Macron manages to secure 55%-60% of the vote this could help his party members gain seats and therefore a potential majority which in turn could lead to Euro strength. He would need his delegates to receive 289 seats for a majority.
To summarise a Macron victory (which is likely) may not have a direct correlation to Euro strength. I would recommend if you are buying or selling Euros within the next six months to outline your currency requirements to your trader. Just remember you can purchase your currency upfront with one of our forward contacts. All you need is a small deposit. If you'd like to learn more please call our friendly team on 01494 725353 or email myself at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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