This Euro report discusses the factors that could affect EUR exchange rates this week in order to help you stay informed should you need to make a currency transfer. The table below shows the difference you would have received when buying £200,000 at the high compared to the low during the last month.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000

To keep track of rates visit our live exchange rates page.

Inflation is still a concern for the European Central Bank

Friday’s inflation data did little to tempt investors into the Euro. Inflation excluding energy and food dropped to 1.1%, down from 1.2% from the previous month. Furthermore, consumer prices remained stagnant and fell short of analysts’ predictions.

Draghi speech today

The big question for Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank (ECB) now is how to balance a fiscal and monetary policy that benefits each of the 27 member states of the European Union.

France’s inflation picked up last month whilst Italy’s appeared to slow down. In a team you’re only as strong as your weakest man, removing stimulus would only further damage the slower economies of the Eurozone, a difficult balancing act for Mario Draghi.

Figures also show that Eurozone business confidence is up, unemployment is falling and growth remains sustainable, however, without inflation showing an upturn I feel as though a delay on reducing the Quantitative Easing programme is likely to be announced this week and as a result I expect the Euro to weaken.

What will affect the Euro this week?

This week sees a host of Eurozone economic data for investors to chew on. Today, the latest unemployment figures are expected, and if the German unemployment rate is anything to go by, we could see more people in work and a strengthening of the Euro. Tomorrow, Producer Price Index’s, followed by Retail Sales data on Wednesday and Germany's industrial orders on Friday, topping off a busy week.

However, the main focus will be on Thursday, when the minutes from the September meeting are set to be released. In recent months, due to sustained growth across the Eurozone, the ECB has signalled that it may start to unwind its Quantitative Easing programme as early as this month’s policy meeting on the 26th. If these minutes give any indication as to what to expect from policymakers on the 26th, I would expect the Euro to strengthen. Any clients selling Euros may want to eliminate the risk before Thursday and look at getting their transfer done before it becomes more expensive.

Catalan Vote

Yesterday’s vote saw the region overwhelmingly vote for independence. The referendum, which was labelled illegal and of no significance caused widespread violence in which over 800 people were injured. This story could cause Euro weakness further down the line as the full effects are yet to be felt and digested by investors.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353.


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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.