Marine Le Pen will face Emmanuel Macron in the second round of the French elections. Markets are confident that Macron will secure the Presidency in May, and the Euro has made gains against the Pound as a result.

A Macron Vs Le Pen face-off

The 7th May will see far-right leader of the National Front Party, Marine Le Pen face Emmanuel Macron, a pro-European ex-banker and leader of En Marche in the 2nd and final round of voting in the French Presidential Election after the results were finalised on Sunday night, giving Macron a majority of 2.5 percentage points over Le Pen. With vast number of people now extremely cautious of polls after their current ‘hit and miss’ reputation many have turned to the ‘put your money on the line’ alternative of betting market odds instead.

As of writing this report Emmanuel Macron has an 87% chance of winning the Presidential race implied by betting market odds, with Marine Le Pen sitting at just 13%.

It is this strong likelihood for a Macron second round win that has seen the EUR strengthen significantly, with GBP/EUR surrendering more than a cent overnight to 1.178.

However, an academic at the forefront of Political Economics and founder of Hong Kong based asset allocation consultancy GaveKal Research, Charles Gave believes Marine Le Pen could replicate the feat achieved by both Donald Trump and the Brexit Campaign.

Salzburg Summit Significance Increase

Are we at a turning point for the Eurozone?

Since Theresa May called a snap general election on Tuesday 18th April GBP/EUR has not failed to disappoint for those with a Euro purchase requirement, trading at the best time since Tuesday could have gained you an extra €5,750 on a £250,000 transfer. However, those holding out for even higher GBP/EUR levels may wish to consider their position. The most recent Eurozone Markit PMI Composite data for April surprised the market by coming in above expectations of 56.4 at 56.7 to hit the highest level seen since April 2011, with recent remarks from Carsten Bzeski at ING stating growth in the Eurozone seems to be driven from a wide range of economies and not just a select few. If you have a GBP/EUR purchase to do it may be wise to contact your currency broker here and take advantage of the current highs. While the news has been GBP positive, any reversal could quickly whittle away the gains.

Economic data releases this week

Thursday is the day for potential movements in EUR paired rates with the morning bringing Service Sentiment figures (a sector accounting for two thirds of Eurozone GDP) alongside Business Climate Indicator at 10am. At 11:45am the latest European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision (and its deposit counterpart) is released with the subsequent Monetary Policy Statement by President of the ECB Mario Draghi.

Both Euro buyers and sellers should look to plan around the French elections by looking at the number of contract options available to you. A member of our team will be happy to talk you through the different options so please call 01494 725 353.


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