Approximately 70 lawmakers from opposition parties look set to block Boris Johnson from suspending parliament before Britain leaves the EU on October 31st. There will be a substantive hearing taking place on September 6th at Scotland’s highest civil court to thrash out the legal position.

Lawmakers in parliament have previously stated they would not allow a no-deal Brexit and will look at all avenues to stop it. Boris, on the other hand, will approach the queen and advise she suspend parliament looking to get a no-deal through come the end of October.

Mr Johnson has stated on numerous occasions that the UK will leave the world’s biggest trading bloc come the end of October whether we have a divorce agreement or not, which is still the default legal position. However, the jury is still out on whether he genuinely means what he is saying or whether he is playing a risky game of chicken with the EU. So far, the EU have called his bluffs and stood firm. If the lawmakers can halt Boris Johnson from suspending parliament, there may be some volatility in the exchange rates potentially seeing the sterling strengthen as the chances of a no-deal Brexit will subside.

Opposition to a no-deal Brexit say the consequences could bring significant economic damage and disruption at borders tipping Britain into a recession. The last time the UK entered a recession was during the financial crash of 2008 / 2009 when the pound to euro interbank rate dropped to lows of 1.02. On the flip side, Brexit supporters say a no-deal might cause some short-term issues, but Britain will thrive outside of the EU bloc. A recent opinion poll by ComRes showed 54% of respondents said they agreed with the statement: “Boris (Johnson) needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs (Members of Parliament) from stopping it.”

What happens next for Brexit and the pound?

US show their support for a no-deal Brexit

John Bolton the US national security advisor on Monday said the US would enthusiastically support the UK if a no-deal Brexit was decided and Washington was ready to work quickly on a US-UK trade agreement. A wide-ranging trade deal with the United States, seen as Britain’s closest ally, is a much-cherished prize for Brexit supporters and could show the opportunities for Britain outside the EU and cushion any disruption to trade with European neighbours.

If you have the requirement to transfer money overseas and would like to know more about the Brexit situation and how this could affect you, you may wish to contact one of our currency specialists.

Strong UK Economic data

UK employment figures continue to rise, increasing by 115k in the three months to June, beating market expectations. These figures could suggest businesses are expecting the pace of UK economic activity to recover. Markets had only expected growth of 65k. There is now 1m more people in employment since June 2016 despite the predictions at the time.

UK average earnings came in at 3.9% in June beating forecasts of 3.8% and previous month’s reading of 3.6%, which is an 11 year high.

This could potentially be good news for the UK economy, however the currency markets have failed to reflect this as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is most likely weighing down the pound.

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